ANALYSIS OF BURMA POLITICS FOR THE FIRST 6 MONTHS OF 2007

ဦး၀င္းႏိုင္ (အမ်ိဳးသားေရ) ANALYSIS OF BURMA POLITICS FOR THE FIRST 6 MONTHS OF 2007 27th June, 2007 By - U Win Naing (National Affair) Translated from Burmese to English by - Aung Bar Say Years are passing one year after another, but we people of Burma are still under military rule for 19 years. If those martyrs gunned down by the military regime during 8-8-88 uprising can be reincarnated, they would be 18 year old men or women now. Will those reincarnated people remember that they were shot and killed in Burma, because they asked for democracy and Human Rights from the military rule. Surely, those who were born after 8-8-88 event and now 18 year old grown up adults will not show any interest or know anything about the event and, they do not have any intelligent capacity to think about it. They are mostly uneducated, grown up among poor families, and their lives are in the hopeless condition. It is a very sad thing. I was engaged for the last 18 years with the hope that there might be some possibilities for reintroducing democracy in Burma. I met both military regime and the NLD, and tried to help them to unite. Now I lost my interest to keep on mediating between them. I cannot help them to be united at all. Both sides did not give in and, instead, they only want to show off their stubbornness. According to the present situations including both sides SPDC and NLD and the International responses, it is really (very, very) hard to get democracy in Burma. I will explain to you why I say this. You can criticise me only after you have read this explanation thoroughly. I will present the situation with my born character of not to support one-sidedly, judging the matters fairly, reveal the truth without personal favour. First, I will analyse the position of the military regime. I can see that it will dedicatedly pursue its 7 steps Road Map declared in the last five years. It is because of disunited democratic opposition groups, with those self-conceited persons, with those over-confident political organisations, those so-called political leaders who are bandwagon riders, it is now reaching to a stage that the military regime has full confidence, to carry on their own ways, without caring for the opposition groups anymore. The army leaders are like other human beings in the world, they were born with anger, greed and illusions, and made mistakes. They did many wrongs during last 19 years period. They had killed people (like 8-8-88 events and De-Pay-Yin massacre). They had imprisoned people (until now, some political prisoners were given 100 years prison sentences). They also took bribes. They had drawn wrong policies on national economy, health and education. Because they had done such wrong things in their lives, they were afraid of being taken action against them by the people. That is why, they do not dare to give up power during our life time. It is obvious that, to be able to continue to control power for another 15 to 20 years, they had formulated 7 Steps Road Map. We are now helpless to stop it and, they are definitely going to materialise that programme. I would like to earnestly ask the people of Burma to consider this fact and find some solution to solve this problem. Our pragmatic approach should be based on 1. we would not get democracy if politics are progressing according to the current situation, and, 2. there is no any possibility to be able to get it (democracy). So, if this is the pragmatic assessment of the current political situation, then, we can start to search for a solution based on this fact. Last month, the Chairman of the Commission of the National Convention, Let.Gen Thein Sein said that, the coming National Convention will be the last part of the Convention (he did not mention how long it will take) and, he will amend whichever part is required, with the intention of building the constitution stronger and stronger. That speech can be embraced as a joyous one, but at the same time, it can be seen as very dangerous. We democratic supporters wanted to see constitution going to be finalised in the last part of the National Convention filled with clauses, which favours the democratic rights we are asking for. But there is no clear outcome of what points they are going to amend and it is very dreadful that, instead of turning out the way weare wishing for, there must be a possibility that, the military would amend more tougher clauses for the continuation of controlling power, or creation of one group rule. I am not telling it by whimsical thinking, but would like to point out with facts,for the people of Burma to be able to consider that, it is possible that my predictionscould come out to be true. Instead of telling many things, I would like to emphasise only two areas, which the SPDC regime might amend in the coming National Convention. The first one will be concerned with the NLD (National League for Democracy) and the second USDA (Union Solidarity Development Association). It is for a long time that, in the diplomatic circle, people are predicting that the NLD would be abolished. It has not really happened until now as yet, but I suggest that it can really happen when the new constitution is introduced. In the constitution, they could add a special clause that the leaders of those abolished parties will not be allowed to participate in the coming Parliament (General) Election. If they really amend the above mentioned draft constitution, as I have mentioned, during the coming National Convention, NLD political role would be finished. I am not calculating the above possibility blindly. I am calculating it, by learning the example of the event which has taken place in Thailand in the last few days ago, where the military government of Thailand drew a new constitution (like Burma), introduced that particular clause in that new constitution. Thai military government abolished the Thai-Rat-Thai party led by ex-premier Tak-Shinawatra, and forbade Taksin from participating in politics for five years. Based on this example, I am pointing out that the SPDC military regime could copy the same way neighbouring country Thailand had done and, amend a new clause in their newly drawing constitution. Possible another amendment expecting to be introduced in the coming National Convention going to be held on 18th July, 2007 is, the role of the USDA, which was formed by the SPDC regime with the intention of using it as one of the political forces. They recruited students, teachers, nurses, fire-fighters and government staff as members of the USDA. But those varieties of USDA members are government staff and, do not have rights to get involved in politics. In the present constitution, there is a clause, which mentions that government staff are not allowed to participate in politics. If it is going on this way, the SPDC regime would not be able to use USDA as a political party. That will be needed for the SPDC regime to change the constitution for their own benefit. It is because of this, definitely, the SPDC regime will change the USDA to become a political party. By analysing the above facts I have presented, I do believe that the people of Burma would be able to understand the situation of the country. I would like to mention one thing in this letter, which I feel unhappy about it. I released a letter on 6th June, 2007, and reminded that democratic forces must be united and demand the SPDC regime in connection with the constitution, when they wanted to make some amendments. Mizzima magazine and radio stations also mentioned about this porposal. I also sent that letter to the respective opposition parties. But the NLD party rejected my proposal. I sent my letter to the NLD, through an important personnel. I also received a negative reply from the NLD party. The responses from the rest of the opposition parties were also nil. That event taught me that if we, among the opposition groups, have no unity, how can we work together to formulate co-operation, let alone the next step for the National Reconciliation. It is based on that experience, I am writing with this letter that it is (very, very) difficult to get democracy in Burma. Let us re-analyse the previous one "it is because the military regime is very much afraid of retaliation by the people of Burma, for what they had committed crimes against the people that, they are continuously keeping power in their hands". The army has the concept that, the NLD would not forgive them. If we accept this hypothesis, the army will never negotiate with the NLD. There is also no clear words or guarantee come out previously and until now from the NLD leaders that, they would forgive and forget the army, for what they had done to the people of Burma. If the NLD leaders says these word only now, the army leaders would not believe them anymore. It is reasonable that army leaders would be worried for their welfare. At the same time, when we asked the army that, if they do not want to compromise with the NLD, do they have any other leader or party to negotiate with, there was no answer to that question. By circumstances based on so many factors, it was leading to a situation that apart from NLD, there is no other alternative solution to solve the political situation in Burma. But it is necessary that, all those people who are concerned in this matter should realise that, according to the present political situation of Burma, we are urgently needed to solve the above mentioned fact that 'there is no other alternative solution to solve the political situation'. Especially, it is important for the people of Burma that, they should realise that fact. Urging the People of Burma If the people of Burma put their faith just only to the NLD, there is no about turn or possiblity to solve the political problem in Burma. That is why, it is urgently needed for you, the people of Burma, to find an alternative party, which is also working, the similar degree to NLD, for restoring democracy in Burma, which is also trying to expel the military dictator, which is not in the same degree, like NLD in severe-relation with the army, which is not committing any unforgivable crimes to each other opponent and, which will also dedicatedly work for the welfare of people with the intention of fulfilling the wishes of the people. It is necessary that, the people of Burma must realised that, there must emerge a new group, which is not NLD, but the Burma army could pay respect and be acceptable to talk to that group, to be able to solve the Burma political situation successfully. I earnestly urge you the people of Burma that, you should urgently think about this proposal to become really reality. Urge To The Leaders From All Over the World It is a known fact by the people of today world that, each country is shouting its foreign policy just to please the people by saying that, one country must not intervene in the internal affairs of the other country. But in reality, the American also intervenes, China also intervenes, India also intervenes, Russia also intervenes, English also intervenes, ASEAN also intervenes, all of them are the same, they are intervening in other countries' internal affairs. In the case of Burma, according to the variation of interests, such as amount of engagements, geopolitical position, politics, policy and economic interest, all countries are the same, interfere with the internal affairs of Burma. It is impossible to avoid interfering in the other country's internal affairs. According to the modern terminology called, 'Globalization', the world is linking between one country to another more closer than ever. I accept that phenomenon, but I cannot accept, if there is one-sided intervening, bullying, treating as subservient or dictating. I accept, to a length that, if other countries come and teach us. Chinese can come. The American can come. But do not come and control the country. I thank the United States of America, especially for its support for democratic struggle in Burma. I am very glad and would like to ask America to help us again. But, I have to say 'but', because, you should keep the balance of support, in your help for restoration of democracy in Burma. Please do not give a one-sided support. You should give the same equal treatment to all the opposition parties and ethnic groups from Burma. It is not right that you are giving your support only to the NLD party, but you neglected the other opposition parties, even you do not invite them or talk to them and, the US Information Department only accept to give training to those people who are recommended only by the NLD. It should not have happened like this. For example, when one of the foreign bodies decided to give award to Naw Onh Hla, who was a member of 'Prayer group' and who was expelled form the NLD, that event was cancelled, as the NLD leaders objected against her. Those examples show that what you are supporting the Burma politics is one-sided. Similarly, the rest of the diplomats from the rest of the Foreign Embassies are also treating us one-sidedly. Chinese diplomats from Chinese Embassy would not invite the democracy supporters when they hold parties at their embassy and, they avoid to talk, if we meet them at the parties held by other embassies. Similarly, embassies of ASEAN countries did not associate with the democrats from Burma until now. They all are saying in their mouths that, they are supporting the democratic movement in Burma. The reason I am telling about this experience is, I would like to remind the people of Burma that, although (all, all) the other countries are good to us in their mouths, in reality, they do not help us, the people of Burma, to become prosperous. I challenge the US Government with this letter. Help Burma to become a democratic country like you. Please help us with pure heart, so that Burma can be like your country, where Republican and Democratic, two prominent democratic parties are running under the democratic principles. I am very much delighted by the way the US is applying 'domestic policy'. I do not like many of the US foreign policies. I would like to sow the seed of the US 'domestic policy' in Burma. But I would like to make clear my position from the beginning that, I would not work as the subservient of the US. I can only stand in equal terms in friendship and ally. Keep aside the fact that, Burma is a small country and people are also shot and small: We must treat each other in equal terms in concerning our morale and our dignity. Now we would analyse China China inserted its influence upon Burma one way or another, since it is one of the biggest countries in the world and has largest population in the world. It is one of the close neighbours to Burma too. If we looked at the modern Burma History, starting from the end of the WWII and, after Burma got independence, no one cannot argue that China is interfering in Burma one way or another. China was the one who helped Burmese communists to make an uprising. China was the one who put different types of wedges between Burman majority and ethnics living along its borders. Chinese people were sent into the territory of Wa and made Chinese descendents. During General Ne Win period of BSPP Government (Burma Socialist Programme Party), he suppressed Chinese and Indian living in Burma. Although Gen.Ne Win could send back batches of Indians by ships to India, he did not send back even one Chinese person to mainland China. In the vacuums, especially in economy, of those Indians who left Burma, Chinese people replaced them. Short to the point, since around last ten years, Burma second capital Mandalay is occupied by Chinese. I can foresee that, in fifty years from now, it would be difficult for Burmese women to marry someone, who has no Chinese blood. There is a proverb, a race would not disappear because of earthquake, but it will if swallowed by men. This is a national problem. I would like to say only a few words in politics. It is a benefit for China, whenever there is a weak government in any form running in Burma. Those weak governments of Burma have to face the influence of China in social, economic and politics. The more we are in bad relationship with the West, the more that weak government of Burma must grab the leg of the big China. Therefore, I would like to remind the people of Burma that, you should understand that, this is the Chinese foreign policy that, China always wants a weak government run in Burma, which has bad relationship with the West. Please people of Burma you should think and analyse with cool head and without bias, what I have analysed the political situation of Burma, in this letter. Then ask yourselves what you should do next. I feel too heavy to present you my analysis wider perspective than this letter. You all should think about this. Ask yourselves what you should do. Then ask to the nearest one to his or her own judgement in this connection. People of Burma would be able to serve for the affairs of Burma by giving their lives. U Win Naing (National Affair)