Burma under Beijing shield

Burma under Beijing shield By Larry JaganMizzima News (www.mizzima. com) July 12, 2007 - Beijing and Rangoon have long been the best of friends. Ever since the military seized power nearly 19 years ago, China has offered Burma a protective umbrella against international pressure. In the past two decades, China has been Burma's most important source of military hardware, during a period in which the West has effectively banned sale of armaments to the junta. Economic ties between the two countries have also burgeoned over the years to the point where China is by far Burma's most import trading partner. This relationship has been further strengthened over the last few months as Beijing now sees the military junta as its most rock solid ally in Asia. Almost ever week there are exchanges of high level visits, including diplomats, political leaders, government officials, businessmen and high ranking military officers. The most important of these were the secret mission of the Army Chief, General Thura Shwe Mann to Beijing in May and the acting Prime Minister, General Thein Sein, the following month. The key message in all these visits is the growing importance both governments place on their special relationship. In the face of US-led international sanctions, Burma has also begun to rely heavily on China for trade and investment. "Each time an important visitor comes from Beijing, they literally bring suit-cases of money with them for the regime," according to a Japanese diplomat who regularly deals with Burma, but declined to be identified. Burma's military leaders know that they have no other option now than to accept Beijing's friendship and money, despite some fears that it might in the longer-term endanger their independence and autonomy. "You have heard of globalisation, " the former military intelligence spokesman, Colonel Hla Min told me a few years ago. "Well the flood of Chinese people and goods into our country is our globalisation, " he said giggling. In true Chinese-style, this friendship comes with huge strings attached. The terms of trade are vastly in China's favour. But this relationship is not without its tensions. For Beijing is also increasingly aware that being close to Rangoon poses its own dilemmas for them. International criticism and pressure is mounting on Beijing to help the international community encourage Burma's military rulers to introduced political and economic reform. The UN Secretary General's special representative for Burma, Gambari has just been in Beijing trying to enlist their help to bring about political change in Burma, the first stop on his international mission to garner regional backing for the UN's renewed efforts to intercede with the Burmese generals. As a result of China taking a more pro-active, behind the scenes measures, Beijing sponsored the recent talks between the US and the Burmese government in the Chinese capital. China's leaders had been pressing their American counterparts to talk directly to Rangoon about political reform for several months. The US negotiator involved in the North Korean nuclear talks, Christopher Hill was convinced by Beijing's concerted efforts to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table which eventually resulted in a deal that Washington owed the Chinese the same courtesy in relationship to Burma. The US is understandably coy about the talks – we used them as an opportunity to press for the release of the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is their public position. But the two days of talks – albeit both sides stating their position – were fruitful, according to a US diplomat involved in the process. While there is as yet no sign that there will be further meetings, Beijing is hopeful that this initial contact may lead to proximity talks along the lines of the process which eventually yielded fruit on the Korean peninsular. These talks would involve Rangoon and Washington, with China and ASEAN also participating, according to Chinese diplomats. Although Beijing would never contemplate allowing India to be involved, they may consider giving Tokyo a role, because that would bring substantial sums of development aid, said an Asian diplomat close to the Chinese. China is anxious to see Burma's international isolation reduced -- and if possible sanctions lifted – with foreign trade and investment encouraged. They know this can only happen with a change in US policy towards Burma. So they are keen on a multilateral process -- perhaps with the UN involved – as they understand that this is the only way to seriously engage the Burmese military regime and provide the international environment to guarantee any concrete results that may emerge from the process. But Beijing is aware that it still has to provide Rangoon with concrete support, even while it tries to temper their intransigence as the same time. For several years now senior ethnic and pro-democracy leaders have met Chinese government officials in the southern Chinese provincial capital of Kunming. Last month there was another meeting, but this time with the leaders and representatives of the ethnic rebel groups that have cease-fire agreements with Rangoon. During their talks, the Chinese pressed the rebel groups to surrender their arms in accordance with the Burmese military junta's plans, according to a senior ethic leader who attended the meeting. They were encouraged to lay down their weapons after the National Convention had concluded drawing up a new constitution – which has just reconvened for the last time and is expected to complete its work in the next few weeks. China's political leaders, according to Chinese political experts in Beijing, are ambivalent towards Aung Sann Suu Kyi. There are some that fear she is a puppet of the Americans and that if she assumed power in Burma, it would merely add to the growing US influence in the region – something Beijing really finds abhorrent. Others feel that if she is the key to real political reform in Burma that would ensure lasting stability, then that was a small price to pay for China's central concern – a stable and secure Burma that does not pose a regional threat of any kind. While China understands that the US influence – especially in Asia – is something that is not in their interests, they also know that Washington's support is necessary for any international initiative in relation to Burma to have a chance of success. Behind the scenes the Chinese have been quietly lending their voice to the international demand for Aung San Suu Kyi's release – though they may have backed away from this when Thura Shwe Mann told them earlier this year that she could not be released any time soon because she remained a security risk. However the Chinese understand that she and her National League for Democracy (NLD) must be involved if the international community is to back Burma's political reforms. While Beijing may not be directly pushing for her immediate release, they are advising the regime that they should ease restrictions on her. China wants a second round of talks between the US and the junta – possibly in Burma – and would include the US representative being allowed to visit the detained opposition leader in her lakeside residence in Rangoon. While China is quietly active behind the scenes on the political front, their main concerns are economic and strategic. China may say political reform is an internal matter for the Burmese regime, but the reality is that they fear excessive delays in the national reconciliation process are only likely to increase instability in Burma. China's leaders fear that social unrest in Burma would dramatically affect their southern provinces. More than a million Chinese migrants have crossed into Burma in the past decade, according to senior Chinese officials. Most of them are there unofficially. They are running small businesses throughout northern Burma, Mandalay and even Rangoon. Technical experts, workers and even farmers have migrated across the border in search of work. Many of the market sellers in the border region, especially in the border towns, like Mongla are also Chinese. China's main strategic concerns are to see Burma introduce some measure of political reform and boost economic development. "The last thing Beijing needs is thousands of Chinese migrants flooding back across the border, increasing the number of restless, unemployed Chinese peasants looking for work in the country's main urban centres and adding to China's growing social and rural unrest," according to the independent Burmese analyst in Chiang Mai university, Win Min. A senior Chinese official told Mizzima recently that "China's leaders understand that the Burmese military regime is illegitimate and lacks the support of the majority of the people". Two decades ago, China's leaders and economists saw that the development of their relatively backward south-western provinces would rely on expanding bilateral trade with its southern neighbours, particularly Burma. So far Burma has not fulfilled the early promise. Now the Chinese authorities realise Burma could become a strategic transit point for goods produced in southern-China. They want to transport these by road to the Rangoon port for shipment to India, the Middle East and eventually Europe. Repair work is underway on Burma's antiquated internal road system that links southern China, through Mandalay to Rangoon. Now there are plans to rebuild the road through northern Burma to North–East India. The Chinese have agreed to finance the construction of this highway using 40,000 Chinese construction workers, according to Asian diplomatic sources in Rangoon. Some 20,000 would remain after the work is completed to do maintenance work on the road. "When this happens the northern region of Burma will be swamped by the Chinese – government officials, workers, lorry drivers and businessmen – it will no longer be Burma," according to a senior western diplomat-based in Bangkok who has followed Burmese affairs for more than a decade. The Chinese authorities are planning to use Burma as a crucial transit point, not just for the products grown or manufactured in south-west China, but as a means of transporting goods from the country's economic power-houses along the eastern seaboard. "By shifting the transit route away from the South-China sea and the Malacca straits to using Burma's port facilities to reach South Asia, the Middle East and Europe they hope to avoid the dangers of crowded shipping lanes and pirates – the Malacca dilemma as Beijing calls it," a senior Chinese analyst told Mizzima on condition of anonymity. Last year the Chinese authorities decided that the only way to ensure their existing investment in Burma, is to strengthen it. "More than six months ago, China's leaders sanctioned increased economic and business ties with Burma," according to a Chinese government official. "This will be in all areas, but especially the energy sector," he added China already has major oil and gas concessions in western Burma, and is planning overland pipelines to bring it to southern China. The Chinese have also agreed to finance and build several major hydro-electric power stations in northern Burma. But Beijing is also well aware that the junta's failure to implement political reform may back fire, not only on Rangoon, but on China as well. Already under increased international criticism for its unswerving support for what the international community regards as pariah states – especially Burma, North Korea, Sudan, and Zimbabwe – Beijing has begun to distance itself and take a more active role in trying to influence its allies to be more flexible. This though does not mean that Beijing will falter in backing Rangoon to the hilt if in the end Burma's military leaders opt to shun all international efforts to encourage it to introduce political reform. (Larry Jagan is a freelance journalist and Burma specialist based in Bangkok. He was formerly the News and Current Affairs editor for Asia and the Pacific at the BBC World Service.) ------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ----