Governments are generally most grateful to human rights organisations for providing information and intelligence about human rights abuses. Very often it is the only and/or the earliest information they have, and they need this information if they are to act.
That said, it is as well not to get too carried away:
- No government would be likely to agree that the situation in Burma "has seriously deteriorated" because of recent displays of public dissatisfaction over the latest fuel price increases. There have been several days of peaceful protests, but there is no blood on the streets as in 1988, and I am not yet aware of any serious injuries.
- It is not true that the Government "has quintupled the price of many basic fuels in the country". Only CNG has increased by 500%, but is still, astonishingly, only one-twentieth (one-twentieth) of the price in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.
- It is a delusion to say that USCB and colleagues around the world "successfully convinced" a number of governments to condemn these attacks, for these governments would have issued such statements without pressures from human rights organisations.
- The suggestion that the UN Security Council should meet in emergency session is way over the top and will not be taken seriously by anyone. If anything, such unreasonable demands tend to antagonise officials and make them less inclined to take action.
- I doubt that "the situation is evolving rapidly". It seems, on the contrary, rather to have quietened down.
I have nonetheless tremendous admiration for all those who took part in the protests. To judge from photographs and video-clips, they came from all walks of life, young and old, office workers and housewives. Most of them were well dressed and if Burma needs a revolutionary colour, then on this occasion it was a "White Revolution". But I rather sense that the 88 Generation leaders have walked into a trap, set opportunistically by the military junta when the protests started. The authorities have shown that they have the power to contain such protests, and they may be taking the opportunity to put as many 88 Generation activists out of circulation until the constitutional process, even the elections, are completed. But I don't know what else the people could have done except protest, and if it is true that some bus fare concessions have already been made, then there may have been some positive effect. However, we should wait and see whether things flare up again, as well they may, perhaps not this month or next, but quite soon.
If these were the most serious protests in Burma during the past decade, then Burma has indeed enjoyed 10 years of unusual urban tranquillity.
Derek Tonkin
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